British Prime Minister Boris Johnson answers questions during a media conference at an EU summit in Brussels, Thursday, Oct. 17, 2019. Britain and the European Union reached a new tentative Brexit deal on Thursday, hoping to finally escape the acrimony, divisions and frustration of their three-year divorce battle. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco)

Canadian business needs Brexit certainty but Johnson plan only a start: observers

The outcome of the unusual weekend vote in London is itself far from predictable

Experts warn that a post-Brexit United Kingdom will present Canadian business with tremendous uncertainty about billions of dollars worth of trade and investments, no matter how the British Parliament votes on Saturday.

The outcome of the unusual weekend vote in London is itself far from predictable, as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson struggles to get support for a controversial agreement that he reached Thursday with the European Union.

But observers say even a Johnson success would only provide a starting point for further rounds of difficult negotiations between London and Brussels and eventually between Canada and the United Kingdom.

Fasken partner Clifford Sosnow says the primary benefit of Johnson’s plan is that it would provide for 14 months to 36 months of negotiations on a new trade deal for two of Canada’s biggest export and investment markets.

“The major concern for everybody is the instability and the instability from not knowing what the business relationship will be, what the investment relationship will be,” says Sosnow, who provides strategic advice about international trade and investments at one of Canada’s largest business law firms.

He adds that open talks between the United Kingdom and Canada would be allowed only after the U.K. leaves the European Union on Oct. 31, if Johnson’s schedule is passed by the British House of Commons.

ALSO READ: Brexit hard-liner Boris Johnson wins race to become UK’s next prime minister

The United Kingdom by itself, represents one of Canada’s top five destinations for investments and top 10 markets for goods and services.

It has also been a gateway for Canadian companies that do business in the European Union, which is Canada’s second- or third-biggest trading partner after the United States and China, depending on the measure.

About 40 per cent of Canadian trade in merchandise with the EU goes through United Kingdom, says Achim Hurrelmann, a political scientist and co-director of Carleton University’s Centre for European Studies in Ottawa.

Without a good free-trade deal between Brussels and London, companies may reconsider “whether they want to stay in the United Kingdom or … go to Dublin (Ireland), or to France or to Germany or the Netherlands.”

“To some extent, that has already happened but my impression is that most companies have been staying put and observing and waiting (to see) what is happening,” Hurrelmann says.

He says that Johnson’s proposed deal would provide more time to sort out the U.K.’s trade relationship with the EU but also with Canada.

“Canada wants to have a trade deal with the U.K. and the U.K. wants to have one with Canada as well,” Hurrelmann says.

“But the question, of course, is will we have time to actually work that out properly or will that have to be very rushed after a no-deal Brexit.”

Mark Camilleri, a Brussels-based Canadian at the Canada EU Trade and Investment Association, says he thinks it’s fair to say “that having any deal is better than having no deal” if only to reduce uncertainty.

He says that having no U.K.-EU. deal “it would potentially be very destabilizing for businesses, including Canadian businesses that are not just based in the U.K. but also based in the EU that are trading to the U.K.”

But Camilleri noted the British Parliament has rejected Theresa May’s proposals on three occasions so ’one has to hold one’s breath as to whether or not (Johnson’s deal) will get through.”

David Paddon, The Canadian Press

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Just Posted

Northern B.C. First Nation communities hold “Rally for the river” in Prince George

Saik’uz and Stellat’en First Nation have taken Rio Tinto BC Works to court over their operation and construction of the Kenney Dam

Want better internet? Complete an online survey by the RDBN

The regional district is doing a survey to understand internet requirements that… Continue reading

Vikings played well this season, says coach

The double-A varsity football team from NVSS received ten northern conference All-Stars

Salvation Army aims to raise $25,000 through the Christmas Kettle program

Last year the organization raised $20,000 for various social needs in the community

William Griffin arrested in Houston homicide

RCMP have now arrested William Griffin, the man wanted in connection to… Continue reading

Cold, stormy winter forecast across much of Canada, The Weather Network predicts

In British Columbia temperatures will be slightly above normal and precipitation will be just below normal

UPDATED: Vancouver Island’s Joe gets suspended sentence in Teddy the dog cruelty case

Melissa Tooshley expected in court on Thursday in same case

Nineteen boats carrying invasive mussels stopped at B.C. borders

Waters of Columbia-Shuswap still test mussel-free

Woman ‘horrified’ after being told to trek 200 kilometres home from Kamloops hospital

‘I can’t get from Kamloops back to 100 Mile House injured, confused… no shoes, no clothes whatsoever’

Sentencing scheduled Tuesday for man who killed Belgian tourist

Sean McKenzie pleaded guilty to second-degree murder of 28-year-old Amelie Sakkalis near Boston Bar

Canadian universities encourage exchange students in Hong Kong to head home

UBC said 11 of its 32 students completing programs in Hong Kong have already left

Midget no more: Sweeping division name changes coming to minor hockey in Canada

Alpha-numeric division names will be used for the 2020-2021 season and beyond

Duncan man gets suspended sentence in Teddy the dog cruelty trial

Joe also gets lifetime ban on owning animals

B.C. pushes for greater industry ‘transparency’ in gasoline pricing

Legislation responds to fuel price gap of up to 13 cents

Most Read