File - In this Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2020 file photo, people walk by an electronic stock board of a securities firm in Tokyo. The global economic rebound from the pandemic has picked up speed but remains uneven across countries and faces multiple headwinds including the lack of vaccines in poorer nations. That could lead to new virus variants and more stop-and-go lockdowns, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD said in its latest forecast. (AP Photo/Koji Sasahara, File)

File - In this Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2020 file photo, people walk by an electronic stock board of a securities firm in Tokyo. The global economic rebound from the pandemic has picked up speed but remains uneven across countries and faces multiple headwinds including the lack of vaccines in poorer nations. That could lead to new virus variants and more stop-and-go lockdowns, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD said in its latest forecast. (AP Photo/Koji Sasahara, File)

Forecast: Rebounding global economy faces multiple threats

Lack of vaccines for poorer nations among the larger issues casting a shadow over recovery

The global economic rebound from the pandemic has picked up speed but remains uneven across countries and faces multiple headwinds. Most worrisome: the lack of vaccines in poorer nations, which could lead to new virus variants and more stop-and-go lockdowns.

Those were key points from the latest economic outlook published Monday by the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

The OECD said that relief and stimulus measures in the more developed world had done much to get the economy through the pandemic recession and back on the path of growth. It forecast global output would rise 5.8%, raising its forecast from 4.8% during its previous outlook in December. This year’s predicted rebound follows last year’s contraction of 3.5%, and would be the fastest since 1973.

The U.S. economy was expected to grow 6.9%, upgraded from a previously forecast 6.5%. The OECD cited wide-ranging support from government spending on additional unemployment benefits, financial assistance for local governments and support for low-income households.

OECD chief economist Laurence Boone said that economic prospects “have improved considerably in recent months, and the outlook is brightening … however, the health situation remains highly uncertain.”

“The first and main risk … remains the virus,” she said.

Although the OECD said most individual countries would reach pre-pandemic levels of output by the end of 2022, it cautioned that “this is far from enough.”

It said that the global economy had not reached the growth level that would have been reached without a pandemic. And the report said that too many countries would not see living standards reach pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022.

The Paris-based organization listed several threats to the recovery, including lack of vaccines in poorer countries that have fewer resources for relief efforts. “A renewed virus-driven weakening of growth would be harder to cushion, resulting in further increases in acute poverty” and raising the risk of financial crisis, the OECD said in its forecast report.

“This is all the more troubling because, notwithstanding the impact on lives and livelihoods, the global economic and social cost of maintaining closed borders dwarfs the costs of making vaccines, tests and health supplies more widely available to these countries.”

As long as the vast majority of the global population is not vaccinated, the report said, “all of us remain vulnerable to the emergence of new variants.”

The report said there had been much recent discussion of possible higher inflation but argued that production bottlenecks and other disruptions to trading in goods should be temporary and would start to fade by the end of the year as production capacity is restored.

—David Mchugh, The Associated Press

RELATED: Economic boost coming in the back half of 2021, if vaccination stays effective: CIBC

RELATED: Rising interest rates could dampen stimulus impact from federal budget, PBO says

economyFinance

Just Posted

A person receives a COVID-19 vaccine at a vaccination clinic run by Vancouver Coastal Health, in Richmond, B.C., Saturday, April 10, 2021. Northern Health confirmed it has the lowest vaccination rates amongst the province’s five regional health authorities. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward)
Vaccination rates in Vanderhoof, Fraser Lake, Fort St James well below provincial average

COVID-19 immunization clinics for youth 12+ coming up in Fort St. James

Steve McAdam (left) is studying substrate conditions in the Nechako River and how they impact sturgeon eggs. The work will help design habitat restoration measures, said McAdam. (Rebecca Dyok photo)
Sturgeon egg studies to help inform future habitat restoration

“It’s an interesting, challenging issue,” says Steve McAdam

Saik’uz First Nation Coun. Jasmine Thomas and Chief Priscilla Mueller speak about the need for addiction treatment facility near Vanderhoof, March 2021. (Aman Parhar/Omineca Express)
Vanderhoof addiction treatment centre tries again with ministry support

Agriculture minister insists she is not interfering in land commission

At an outdoor drive-in convocation ceremony, Mount Royal University bestows an honorary Doctor of Laws on Blackfoot Elder and residential school survivor Clarence Wolfleg in Calgary on Tuesday, June 8, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh
‘You didn’t get the best of me’: Residential school survivor gets honorary doctorate

Clarence Wolfleg receives honorary doctorate from Mount Royal University, the highest honour the school gives out

“65 years, I’ve carried the stories in my mind and live it every day,” says Jack Kruger. (Athena Bonneau)
‘Maybe this time they will listen’: Survivor shares stories from B.C. residential school

Jack Kruger, living in Syilx territory, wasn’t surprised by news of 215 children’s remains found on the grounds of the former Kamloops Indian Residential School

A logging truck carries its load down the Elaho Valley near in Squamish, B.C. in this file photo. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chuck Stoody
Squamish Nation calls for old-growth logging moratorium in its territory

The nation says 44% of old-growth forests in its 6,900-square kilometre territory are protected while the rest remain at risk

Flowers and cards are left at a makeshift memorial at a monument outside the former Kamloops Indian Residential School to honour the 215 children whose remains are believed to have been discovered buried near the city in Kamloops, B.C., on Monday, May 31, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck
‘Pick a Sunday:’ Indigenous leaders ask Catholics to stay home, push for apology

Indigenous leaders are calling on Catholics to stand in solidarity with residential school survivors by not attending church services

“They will never be forgotten, every child matters,” says Sioux Valley Chief Jennifer Bone in a video statement June 1. (Screen grab)
104 ‘potential graves’ detected at site of former residential school in Manitoba

Sioux Valley Dakota Nation working to identify, repatriate students buried near former Brandon residential school

The Queen Victoria statue at the B.C. legislature was splattered with what looks like red paint on Friday. (Nicole Crescenzi/News Staff)
Queen Victoria statue at B.C. legislature vandalized Friday

Statue splattered with red paint by old growth forest proponents

Police cars are seen parked outside Vancouver Police Department headquarters on Saturday, January 9, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck
Vancouver police officer charged with assault during an arrest in 2019

The service has released no other details about the allegations

Denmark’s Christian Eriksen receives medical attention after collapsing during the Euro 2020 soccer championship group B match between Denmark and Finland at Parken stadium in Copenhagen, Saturday, June 12, 2021. (AP Photo/Martin Meissner, Pool)
Christian Eriksen in stable condition, Euro 2020 match resumes

Eriksen was given chest compressions after collapsing on the field during a European Championship

Most Read