A woman wearing a protective mask walks past a face mask mural during the COVID-19 pandemic in Toronto on Thursday, November 12, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette

A woman wearing a protective mask walks past a face mask mural during the COVID-19 pandemic in Toronto on Thursday, November 12, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette

Canada surpasses 300,000 COVID cases, more than 100,000 in past month

Canada could reach the 400,000 total case milestone by early December, if the current trajectory holds up

Canada reached a troubling milestone on Monday, surpassing 300,000 total COVID cases since the pandemic began earlier this year, and health experts are alarmed — but not surprised — by the rapid growth we’ve seen over the last few weeks.

The marker comes less than a month after the country reached 200,000 overall cases on Oct. 19. It took about four months for Canada to leap from 100,000 to 200,000, suggesting that even as some cases are being resolved, the spread is quickening.

Total COVID-19 cases are different from confirmed active cases. Canada had roughly 50,000 active cases as of Monday afternoon, while nearly 240,000 had recovered and more than 11,000 have died.

Caroline Colijn, an infectious disease modeller and epidemiologist with Simon Fraser University, said the growth trajectory is worrying.

“We’ve seen this with Europe and the U.K. and U.S., and now across Canada — the pattern is very consistent,” she said.

“This is something that can overwhelm the health-care systems in western democracies. And it can do it very rapidly.”

Colijn projected Canada would reach the 400,000 total case milestone by early December, if the current trajectory holds up.

Canada was averaging about 4,500 new daily cases over the past week, and Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief medical officer, said Friday that daily case counts may climb to more than 10,000 by early December.

Dr. Ilan Schwartz, an infectious disease expert with the University of Alberta, says “widespread restrictions” are needed in order to prevent the skyrocketing spike projected by Colijn and other COVID modellers.

He said government and public health policymakers need to put forward clear, concise and aggressive measures, and continue to “emphasize that people really need to change their plans and minimize their in-person interactions.”

“Because it’s really only a matter of time — and we’re talking weeks, not months — before ICU’s become totally overwhelmed and are unable to provide even the most basic care to people,” he added.

While the jump from 100,000 total cases to 200,000 took place from June to October, a period that coincided with the large-scale re-opening of businesses and schools nationwide, Colijn said the more recent accelerated spike may signify more.

READ MORE: No mask mandate as B.C. breaks records with 1,959 new COVID cases, 9 deaths over weekend

She believes some people became complacent with pandemic restrictions in the final weeks of summer, and so they worried less when cases began rising in the fall among younger people who generally don’t get very sick.

The problem, however, is that COVID continued to spread, infecting more vulnerable people and putting hospitals in danger of reaching full capacities.

“People really relaxed, they went indoors and so that just accelerated the spread,” she said.

Some Canadians’ opinions on the dangers of COVID may be tainted by how relatively well the country handled the first wave, added Schwartz.

People were cautioned about overextending hospital resources back in March, and when the system wasn’t strained to the extent experts anticipated — largely because of early lockdown measures — some may have developed a false sense of security.

“It’s like Y2K, where we were told something big would happen and it didn’t,” Schwartz said.

“But seeing what’s going on now, with hospitals filling up across the country, ICU (admission) going up, and the rate of new infections continuing to accelerate, it’s extremely troublesome… And it is quite clear this (perspective) needs to change very rapidly.”

Dr. Andrew Boozary, the executive director of health and social policy at the University Health Network, says other factors contributing to community transmission need to be addressed.

It can be hard for someone to obey stay-at-home orders if they don’t have access to stable housing, he said. A low-income worker without paid sick leave, for example, may not be able to self-isolate with symptoms if it means missing out on a paycheck.

“We need to ensure that social policy protections can take place for prevention,” Boozary said.

“If we don’t do all these things, and do them in a way that’s coordinated, we’ll continue to keep lapsing.”

Canadians are entering what experts call a crucial period of the pandemic, with the Christmas holidays and winter season only six weeks away.

They say the escalating COVID-19 growth rate needs to be slowed in order to avoid reaching more grim milestones in the near future.

“Many of us have been worried about winter because of the inability of people to be outside and what that can mean,” Boozary said.

“This is not the place we want to be.”

READ MORE: Prenatal care remains key amid COVID, B.C. expert says, as U.S. studies show heightened risk

Melissa Couto Zuber, The Canadian Press


Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Want to support local journalism during the pandemic? Make a donation here.

CanadaCoronavirus

Just Posted

A person receives a COVID-19 vaccine at a vaccination clinic run by Vancouver Coastal Health, in Richmond, B.C., Saturday, April 10, 2021. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward)
Local youth vaccination clinics underway

Pfizer vaccine will be used

Priya Sharma. (Submitted)
Column: Why ultimatums don’t work

By Priya Sharma It is a common misconception that people can choose… Continue reading

People had a chance to interact with different animals at the petting zoo, participate in mutton busting, and buy everything local during the Fall Fair held in 2019. (Aman Parhar/Omineca Express)
55th Fall Fair in Vanderhoof cancelled

Alternative events eyed once again

People line up to get their COVID-19 vaccine at a vaccination centre, Thursday, June 10, 2021 in Montreal. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ryan Remiorz
Vaccines, low COVID case counts increase Father’s Day hope, but risk is still there

Expert says people will have to do their own risk calculus before popping in on Papa

The Calgary skyline is seen on Friday, Sept. 15, 2017. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh
2 deaths from COVID-19 Delta variant in Alberta, 1 patient was fully immunized

Kerry Williamson with Alberta Health Services says the two patients, a man and a woman likely acquired the virus in the hospital

B.C. Public Safety Minister Mike Farnworth and Attorney General David Eby attend opening of the first government-run B.C. Cannabis Store, Kamloops, Oct. 19, 2018. (B.C. government)
B.C. government to allow home cannabis delivery starting July 15

Added convenience expected to persuade buyers to ‘go legal’

The first suspension bridge is the tallest in Canada, with a second suspension bridge just below it. The two are connected by a trail that’s just over 1 km. (Claire Palmer photo)
PHOTOS: The highest suspension bridges in Canada just opened in B.C.

The Skybridge in Golden allows visitors to take in views standing at 130 and 80 metres

BC Green Party leader and Cowichan Valley MLA Sonia Furstenau introduced a petition to the provincial legislature on Thursday calling for the end of old-growth logging in the province. (File photo)
BC Green leader Furstenau introduces old-growth logging petition

Party calls for the end of old-growth logging as protests in Fairy Creek continue

B.C. Premier John Horgan leaves his office for a news conference in the legislature rose garden, June 3, 2020. (B.C. government photo)
B.C. premier roasted for office budget, taxing COVID-19 benefits

Youth addiction law that triggered election hasn’t appeared

A vial containing the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine is shown at a vaccination site in Marcq en Baroeul, outside Lille, northern France, Saturday, March 20, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/AP/Michel Spingler
mRNA vaccines ‘preferred’ for all Canadians, including as 2nd dose after AstraZeneca: NACI

New recommendations prioritizes Pfizer, Moderna in almost all cases

Surrey Mayor Doug McCallum speaks at a press conference in August 2019 about provincial government approval of the city’s change to a municipal force, joined by councillors (from left) Mandeep Nagra, Allison Patton and Doug Elford. Members of the National Police Federation claim there is still no transition plan in place although Surrey RCMP’s contract with the city is due to end March 31.(File photo)
Elections BC approves petition application for referendum on Surrey policing transition

Application was filed under Recall and Initiative Act by the widow of a Surrey murder victim

Queen’s counsel Paul Doroshenko, a Vancouver lawyer, has been suspended from practice for two months after admitting that his firm mismanaged $44,353.19 in client trust funds. (Acumen Law)
High-profile B.C. lawyer suspended over $44K in mismanaged client trust funds

Queen’s counsel Paul Doroshenko admits he failed to supervise his staff and find or report the shortages

Most Read